Will Japan join the Nuclear Powers Club?
In the Country of the rising Sun the discussion about opportunity and reasonability of development of its own military atomic program is flared up.
Most Japanese people have complicated and diverse attitude about development of their own “atomic shield”. On the one hand, it was Japan, the only country in the World, the nuclear weapon was used against. American bombs which fell on Hiroshima and Nagasaki still remind about themselves by radiation disease caused deaths of thousands of Japanese. On the other hand “the indomitable samurai’s spirit”, being woken up in grandsons of emperor’s soldiers, calls for return of the former Japan greatness.
Defeat in the World War II led to a certain limitation of Japan sovereignty. The country of the rising Sun is been deprived of use its armed forces in military conflicts abroad. In fact, security of Japan is provided by the American corps, quartered on the special military bases. Recently the information about plans of the US to include Japan and Australia into its anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system appeared in the press. Intention to set up the newest American weapons on its territory can be considered as an attempt of Japanese government to reply on so-called North Korean nuclear threat.
However, during last time “the policy of helplessness” gave rise to complaints. Voices for necessity to strengthen own armed forces and activization of foreign policy activities become louder. Development of nuclear weapons must be the most important step to transform Japan into the mighty military power. But this process has faced serious difficulties.
In the public conscience (including people of our country) Japan is a mighty hi-tech power, which is able in the shortest time to create or reproduce any, even the most science intensive production. But facing this myth with reality caused cruel disappointment.
Having analyzed Japanese technological potential, a governmental commission concluded that it will take three to five years and more than 200 – 300 billions yens. Most of all were disappointed Japanese people by themselves. The authors of the web site of Power Industry Association notice with bitterness: “All believed that such high world achievements as metals processing and polishing, superhigh-speed magnet engines, super-precise bearings, composite carbon fiber are simple things for such technically developed country as Japan. Unfortunately, it is not so.”
It is interesting that time constraints and costs make Japanese journalists angry less than impossibility to keep production of nuclear weapon in secret. A columnist of “Sankei Simbun” notices that “it is hard to hide large–scale actions from the World, therefore Japan will have a necessity to leave the nonproliferation treaty.” This perspective frightens Japanese politicians, which apprehend isolation of Japan in the World: ”Japan has neither political no physical conditions for possible production of nuclear weapons. But even if, in spite of difficulties, Japan lead such policy, it will destroy Japanese-American relations and will not guarantee own power safety“.
In this situation Japanese experts are sure that “silence is the best policy”. However if Japan begun to produce nuclear weapons it would hardly be kept in secret. Especially because Japanese journalists go on obsessively searching and finding more and more new potential enemies of Japan in the World.
The newspaper “Sankei Simbun” which was cited before, gave a quotation of Japanese prime-minister Abe, who “showed his alarm and called to understand that Japan is fully surrounded by nuclear weapon of extremely dangerous armed neighbors, first of all, Russia, the country of political murders, despotic communist China and North Korea and the USA which control Pacific ocean.” The are factors to prove necessity to develop own armed forces in whole and Japanese nuclear program particularly. But clanging with non-existing weapon leads to absolutely contrary effect. North Korea can really use the discussion which take place in Japanese ruling groups as the pretext for further
development of its own nuclear program, that can cause the conflict escalation in already disquieted region.
Many representatives of scientific intellectuals including Americans adhere to the similar position. A member of Livermore national laboratory of the USA, Albert Smith, was in Novosibirsk at the end of May on the 50th anniversary of Siberian branch of Russian Academy of science, expressed quite interesting opinion about Japan's attempts to create their own nuclear program. He reported that Japan's actions were triggered by the USA Administration in many respects. The USA is carrying out the peacemaking actions in Iraq and Afghanistan and thus inciting Japan to militarization. This current policy of Japan is quite wrong and it is a really serious problem, which leads to uncertainty.
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